![]() Furthermore, these nuclear security and safety risks necessitate cross-border cooperation, with Middle Eastern countries maintaining effective channels for collaboration on emergency preparedness and crisis management. In such a risky environment, any nuclear power program must adopt extra measures to prevent theft or sabotage, based on regular risk assessments. The terrorist group was able to secretly develop the first non-state actor’s chemical weapons program tried to acquire radioactive materials and operated the largest smuggling network in the region, including routes for weapons transfers. For transnational armed non-state actors, ungoverned areas under conflict create favorable circumstances for such activities.īy 2017, Daesh, also known as ISIS, controlled approximately 45,377 square kilometers of territory and 2.5 million people in Iraq and Syria-larger than Denmark or Switzerland. Theft and trafficking, whether for profit or terrorism, are highly possible. A nuclear disaster in the world’s busiest oil shipping area, the Arabian Gulf, would put one-third of the world’s oil production and the global economy at risk.įor nuclear and other dual-use technologies, sabotage is not the only concern. The same militia attacked the UAE’s capital in 2022 and threatened to target its nuclear power plant earlier. Similarly, according to the Saudi-led coalition in Yemen, between 20 the Houthis, an Iran-aligned militia, fired 430 ballistic missiles and launched 851 drone attacks on Saudi Arabia, targeting oil facilities. ![]() In 2012, the computer virus Shamoon was used to target Saudi Aramco in one of the most destructive cyberattacks in the region. Over the past decade, these actors have proved to be well-organized. Critical nuclear power infrastructure will be an attractive target for violent non-state actors. Considering the ongoing conflicts in Syria and Yemen, and a changing security landscape that features active insurgencies, the projected growth in nuclear power creates security complications. Furthermore, desalination using nuclear power is a possible way out of water scarcity for a region characterized by extremely high water risk. Even for oil-rich Middle Eastern countries, the nuclear energy option remains economically attractive, given that regional power demand is projected to rise by at least 40 percent by 2030. Concerns about climate change and energy security are causing some countries to reconsider nuclear energy, and the developers of new reactor designs are promising lower capital costs and improved safety. There are undoubtedly legitimate motives behind this growing interest in nuclear power. In addition, Jordan and Saudi Arabia have committed to plans centered on Small Modular Reactors and uranium extraction and mining. Egypt is following suit and recently started the construction of a four-unit nuclear reactor based on Russian technology. Now the UAE’s fourth reactor is under construction. In 2021, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) became the second nation in the region (after Iran) to commission a nuclear power reactor. Still, the other countries of the region and other concerned parties-including the United States, Russia, and China-need to look for a way to at least begin talks with Israel about nuclear proliferation in the region.Ī dramatic expansion of nuclear power in the Middle East is expected over the next decade. To be sure, it will be extremely difficult to find a way to bring Israel into such a zone. A robust and inclusive WMD-free zone remains the best solution for addressing these concerns. ![]() A growing interest in nuclear technology in the Middle East-combined with ambiguity over nuclear activities in Iran and Israel-raises concerns about potential proliferation in the region. This has been a long-standing position, but it should not be taken for granted. History suggests that power politics-in which self-interest is prioritized over global interests-may not be the best lens for looking at issues of arms control.ĭuring the 10th review conference of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty last year, Arab states reiterated their call for establishing a Middle East zone free of weapons of mass destruction (WMD). Yet conversations about averting such a doomed future for the region might be heading once again in the wrong direction. Recent news reports suggesting Saudi Arabia is seeking US aid for a peaceful nuclear program are bringing attention to the distressing potential for nuclear weapons proliferation in the Middle East.
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